Sunday, January 25, 2009

Someone's Already Done The Math

This is the internet; there's always someone out there who's done the heavy lifting and has a page up telling you what you want to know.

In this case, the "what you want to know" is what are the odds of making the playoffs this year, based on the relative performances of the first half of the season?

Presto: has the bad news: they are predicting a 97% chance that there will be no playoffs for the Senators. Digging deeper into the numbers, the chances of the Senators getting in is dependent not only on a turn-around of historic proportions, but on collapses of similar proportions of the teams currently ahead.

The time has come to start shaping next year's team. We have to look carefully at the unrestricted free agents who are at risk this year, and decide now who will be a part of the team and who can/should be shopped around for future prospects and draft leverage.

Holding on to the dream of playoffs will only see those dreams dashed, and the misery prolonged.